International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition
The VCBF once again has offered up our ‘Akebono’ trees at Maple Grove Park, for the fifth year of the International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition. More information about the challenge can be found at https://competition.statistics.gmu.edu/. The contestants needed to predict the blooming dates for the participating locations. As well, they competed against models created by artificial intelligence like ChatGPT. The contestants submitted their predictions by the end of February, and we are now waiting for the trees.
We will show you how our Maple Grove Park trees are progressing toward their peak bloom. Douglas Justice has sent in our first photos, taken March 12. We had a warm winter, no freezing, no snow, until last week when we had temperatures near freezing and a dusting of snow. Bud break is complete, a week before last year.
March 21, temperatures have been around 10 degrees, but days have been dark and rainy, until yesterday of glorious sunshine and soggy ground. Douglas Justice took these photos yesterday, but driving by today, he thought they had progressed to 40%. The trees facing the road are a little farther along – they might drag down the over-all percentage.
March 22, photos here are only two days after the previous ones. The blossoms now beckon from a block away. The trees have a lot of buds still, but they’re looking beautiful. Photos are by Wendy Cutler.
March 23, one day later, Douglas Justice reports we’re at 60%.
March 25, peak bloom is hard to call, with one tree considerably behind the others. The young tree, which we’re not including, is ahead of the others. Photos are by Douglas Justice.
This set of photos were taken just a little later on the same day as the ones above. Douglas Justice has called the peak bloom for March 27, another two days after these latest photos that show a lot of buds, with the middle tree holding back the average (and the young 4th tree that was leading the pack not included). At the beginning of last week, we were predicting an earlier peak bloom, but temperatures got cold, down to freezing the night of March 25, and few sunny breaks the next two days.
Thanks to VCBF cherry scout Leanne Fong for sharing this set of photos.
You can see photos of the blooming progression from last year at Yesterday’s news – 2025 International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition – Vancouver Cherry Blossom Festival.
