The peak bloom date for Vancouver’s location in the 2024 International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition was March 23.
International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition
Submissions are in from the international prediction competition, “When will the cherry trees bloom in 2024?”. The predicted date for ‘Akebono’ trees studied from Vancouver (Maple Grove Park in Kerrisdale) is April 3, just four days earlier than last year’s peak bloom. You can read about the predictions at https://competition.statistics.gmu.edu/.
The competition organizers provided all the publicly available data they could find on the bloom date of cherry trees. Competitors used this data, in combination with any other publicly available data, to create reproducible predictions of the bloom dates at five locations around the globe.
The organizers are hoping to help scientists better understand the impacts of climate change.
You can find the photos of the 2023 blooming development at https://vcbf.ca/2023/04/09/yesterdays-news-2023-international-cherry-blossom-prediction-competition/. We are using the same trees as last year.
2024 photos from the Vancouver location
Here are the first photos from 2024, taken March 10. The development here is similar to what was photographed last year on March 21. The group in the third photo are a little ahead of all the others. Photos are by Wendy Cutler.
Photos below were taken at 6:30pm PDT on March 15. The daytime highs were around 7 C degrees, until the last two days when they reached 10 degrees. Almost all buds have emerged from their bud scales, and some pedicels are visible, to .5 cm.
March 17, photos taken at 1:30pm. We are into the fourth sunny day with temperatures around 15 C degrees. We are ignoring the young fourth tree here. The three old trees are progressing at a different rate. It’s hard to see progress on the middle tree; the other two have blossoms lightening in colour, slightly enlarged, with most pedicels noticeable. The last four photos are of the most advanced tree, the one closest to the main road.
March 19, photos taken at 3:30pm. It was sunny all day, and the high temperature was 12 C degrees. The trees showed a marked advancement in blooming from two days ago, but they still show a difference in progress from each other. Most buds have swelled in size and lightened up in colour. All trees have some open flowers; one tree has areas with many open flowers; one has only a few open flowers on its south side; and one is intermediate between those two. The first group of photos were taken from the north, east and west.
March 21. This is not yet peak bloom, but these trees are now showy and are worth a visit if you’re near the area. They are showiest from a distance, but from close up, you can see how many more buds are still to open. After the first row showing the set from different directions, each row presents a single tree.
March 22. The morning was partly sunny, afternoon was partly drippy, high was 10.8 C degrees. No opinion on peak bloom is being given yet; we will post photos until we are sure these have passed the point of peak bloom, and leave it to Douglas Justice to make the declaration. The three trees are shown with blossoms on that tree; the group photo is shown last.
March 23. Today was rainy, high again of 10.8 C degrees. Photos here are by Shirley Willard. The format is the same: tree followed by its blossoms.
March 24. This bright sunny day reached a high of 13 C degrees, but it seemed warmer. The beach areas were summer-crowded. Our trees were sporting their best spring finery. Photos are by Wendy Cutler.
